ImpaCt Risk

Recently Observed Objects
(within past 60 days)

 

Object Designation	Year Range	Potential Impacts	Impact Prob. (cum.)	Vinfinity (km/s)	H (mag)	Est. Diam. (km)	Palermo Scale (cum.)	Palermo Scale (max.)	Torino Scale (max.)
2013 BP73	2078-2107	9	1.7e-05	20.69	20.2	0.310	-2.42	-2.70	0
2013 BL18	2070-2092	5	9.4e-06	14.19	26.0	0.022	-5.58	-5.80	0
2012 UE34	2095-2105	7	4.5e-07	5.50	23.1	0.081	-5.88	-6.37	0
2013 BR27	2073-2110	51	3.7e-05	10.93	27.7	0.010	-5.93	-6.27	0
2011 TO	2064-2076	3	5.3e-06	8.55	26.3	0.019	-6.00	-6.00	0
2013 CL22	2064-2064	3	6.6e-07	9.55	24.7	0.039	-6.12	-6.18	0
2013 AB65	2087-2113	12	4.8e-06	24.42	27.6	0.010	-6.50	-6.66	0
2012 XE133	2083-2091	3	1.9e-08	9.89	23.4	0.072	-7.18	-7.48	0
2013 CY	2069-2098	7	4.1e-06	2.43	28.2	0.008	-7.31	-7.98	0
2012 YR1	2077-2077	1	3.7e-07	7.84	26.7	0.016	-7.48	-7.48	0
2013 BR15	2095-2110	5	4.6e-08	14.09	25.1	0.032	-7.57	-7.77	0

Comet 2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will make a very close approach to Mars in October 2014 

On Oct. 19, 2014, Comet 2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will pass extraordinarily close to Mars, almost certainly within 300,000 km of the planet and possibly much closer. Our current best estimate has it passing about 50,000 km from the surface of Mars. This is about 2.5 times the distance of Mars' outermost satellite Deimos or less than twice the Earth close approach distance of 2012 DA14 on February 15, 2013. Since the observation span available for orbit determination is still relatively short, the current orbit is quite uncertain and the nominal close approach distance will change as additional observations are included in future orbit estimates. Currently, Mars lies directly within the range of possible paths for the comet and we can't exclude the possibility that the comet might impact Mars. Our current estimate for the impact probability is less than one in six hundred and we expect that future observations will allow us to completely rule out a Mars impact.

 

 

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